Week 14 Start or Sit

If you’re reading this, consider yourself one of the lucky ones. Less than 50% of all fantasy players make it this far into the season. If you’re like me, you’re in multiple leagues; some of my start/sit decisions are complex. Miles Sanders or Giovani Bernard? Noah Fant or Dalton Schultz? Kyler Murray or Kirk Cousins? Do I finally sit Tyler Lockett?

This time of year, mistakes are fatal. One missed opportunity, and you’re watching your brother-in-law hoist the trophy you bought from Amazon. I’ve had some bad playoff mishaps myself. I’ll bring you back to championship week, week 16 of the 2014 season. My opponent needed a QB, as his starter went out with an injury. I had higher waiver priority, so I claimed the highest ranked QB that week, as well as the next 3 highest ranked quarterbacks available. Genius, right? Well, if I told you that my opponent was then forced to pick up Mark Sanchez as his final choice, you’d feel even better about it. Instead, Mark Sanchez put up 374/2/1 for a total fantasy output of 24 fantasy points. The final result? I was outscored by 2 fantasy points. Even worse? All four of the other quarterbacks I picked up to block my opponent put up 19 points or less. I was devastated. Thankfully, I’ve won some championships since then, but that will always be one that got away.

Hopefully, the advice I can provide for you this week has the opposite effect. My goal in putting together start/sits every week will be to provide you with insight into my thinking, what I see on the film, and sometimes, pure gut instincts. I hope you enjoy this, and if you do please let me know! I will have usually 3 starts, 3 sits for each position.

Quarterbacks:

Start:

Justin Herbert – Boy wonder had an outing against the Patriots last Sunday he likely won’t forget. Herbert isn’t the first rookie QB that Belichick has taken to school, and certainly won’t be the last. It is almost a rite of passage for the great quarterbacks of this and last generation. This is a major reason why I have little concern for putting Herbert right back in my starting lineup this week; Atlanta has a pretty solid rush defense, but are dead last in fantasy production against quarterbacks. I would be less than surprised if Herbert puts up QB1 numbers this week in what could be a shootout in Los Angeles with two stacked wide receiving corps battling head-to-head. This game has the makings of a 70 point bonanza.

Deshaun Watson – There is still hesitation in the fantasy sphere in regards to Deshaun Watson’s ability to lead a fantasy team with the loss of Will Fuller. Just stop. There have only been two games this season since the departure of Bill O’Brien that Deshaun Watson has put up less than 21 fantasy points; the wind game against Cleveland, and last week against Indianapolis. Indy may have the league’s best defense, and Watson still managed to put up 341 yards. His fantasy day may have looked much different if a bad snap didn’t cause a fumble inside the 5-yard line at the end of the game. Watson had a 6-8 point swing on that one play. With that in mind, Chicago doesn’t scare me as much is it used to. Matthew Stafford managed to put up massive numbers last week without DeAndre Swift and without Kenny Golladay. Equate that to Watson without Fuller; it just doesn’t matter. Put him in as your starter and don’t think about it.

Tom Brady – I am an avid Patriots fan. I have watched every single snap of Tom Brady’s career. There are a few truths I am aware of; one of them is that you never, ever doubt Tom Brady after a bye. In fact, looking at Brady’s schedule, there is a chance he is a top-3 QB this fantasy playoffs. Tampa needs to win football games. Traditionally, Brady cools off in December, but this was mainly due to the Patriots coasting to a first-round bye and protecting their greatest asset. The Buccaneers do not have this luxury. Expect Brady in the shotgun early and often in this one against a porous Minnesota defense.

Sit:

Jared Goff - If you asked me 3 weeks ago what I thought about the Patriots defense, I would have told you to start every single player you have on the opposing offense. Instead, we now have a defense firing on all cylinders and playing inspired football. They still can’t get after the quarterback very well, but this secondary is taking its 2018 form again. Kyle Dugger has stepped into his hybrid safety role as a second-round draft pick and has looked exceptional. JC Jackson now has 7 interceptions on the season. But these are just a piece of the pie. New England slows the gameplay down to a screeching halt. Cam Newton is happy to throw the ball 10 times per game and just grind the clock with the ground game. I anticipate lots of man coverage this game, something that both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp do not handle well. Couple that with only running 55-60 plays in a game, and it only allows for about 30-32 Jared Goff passes. He would need to have a career day in order to have fantasy relevance this week, something I just do not see happening.

Derek Carr - Two weeks ago, Carr absolutely destroyed your team, putting up -2 fantasy points against the last ranked defense in the NF. Last week, he was probably on your bench when he exploded for 35 fantasy points. Two things to point out; first, he played the Jets. Second, he gained roughly 7 additional fantasy points on the final Hail Mary of the game. You simply cannot trust him this week. It is very likely you have another option on your team. Indy ranks 3rd against starting QBs, and in his two games against top-5 defenses this year, he has managed an average of just 16 fantasy points.

Matt Stafford - I love Matthew Stafford. I think he is one of the greatest competitors in this league, and incredibly overrated. His 29 points against Chicago last week was great to watch. But Stafford has put up over 20 fantasy points just twice this season, and has scored less than 15 points in six games. I still don’t expect Kenny G. Let Stafford enjoy your victory this week from the bench.

If you’re desperate:

Sam Darnold - I added Sam in this week because of someone I also have as a start later on in this article. I cannot believe we may be trusting several Jets to get you a fantasy victory this year, but here we are. Seattle’s defense is improved, but Russell Wilson will be all over this Jets defense. Expect tons of points from Seattle, which will force Darnold to continue to throw. It may not be pretty, but I expect over 300 yards, a turnover or two, probably a couple of touchdowns.

Running Backs:

Start:

Wayne Gallman - I think we’ve made it to the point in the season where we stop doubting the GallMan (credit Adam Aizer). He has not put up less than 13.2 fantasy points since taking the job over for good in week 7. That includes two games against the Eagles, and one each versus the Buccaneers and Washington; all elite rush defenses. Set it and forget it as your RB2.

Jonathan Taylor - We have hit the point in the season where we can FINALLY trust JT. Vegas is putrid against the run. Taylor has broken 90 yards on the ground in consecutive games, and has 7 catches in that span. I think his floor is 15 fantasy points this week. If everything goes according to plan, we could see 3-4 receptions, over 100 rushing yards, and at least one TD. Expect monster results.

Damien Harris - This is more of a sleeper start, flex in PPR but locked in RB2 in standard scoring leagues. I watched some film of the Cardinals-Rams game from the past week, and I was floored with the holes that were available to Kenyan Drake. He left plenty of yards on the table. Damien Harris won’t miss. He has elite vision; he isn’t a household name, and doesn’t play in the passing game, but Harris is one of the game’s best backs. In what I expect to be a grind it out type of game, I anticipate Harris getting the rock on about 15-18 handoffs; he hopefully finds the endzone, and provides you with a solid double-digit performance as your RB2/flex.

Sit:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - It pains me to say this. Clyde was a near-consensus first round pick. I have no shares of Clyde, but I remember having the 7th pick in a draft this year and remember feeling angry after he was not available to me and was taken a pick before (full transparency, I took Joe Mixon over Derrick Henry. Please don’t think any less of me). Unfortunately, Clyde is not part of your championship push this week. He did not play against the Broncos last week with an illness. This week, he gets a stingy Miami defense. With the way KC spreads the ball around, you simply cannot trust his production. He is disappointingly minimally involved in the passing game; only one game since week 4 with more than 3 receptions.

Todd Gurley - I will keep this brief. Gurley looks to be a shell of himself. He is a TD-or-bust back right now. He very well could put up a line of 13-35-2, but he just looks so bad right now. Try to avoid.

Miles Sanders - I have Miles Sanders in two of my most important leagues. He is an unbelievable talent, and there are plenty of scenarios in which he has a great game. I am still weighing whether or not to play him over the likes of Gio and Damien Harris (who is literally a start of the week). He was a fringe 1st or early 2nd round pick. Earlier this year he put up over 20 non-PPR points against the outstanding PIT defense. Philly is even trying to get him more involved. This offense is just so inept right now that I can’t see it in the majority of scenarios. I put him in as a sit with a caveat; there is a greater than 20% chance that Sanders is an RB 10 or greater this week. Trust your gut and don’t look back!

Wide Receiver:

Start:

Cole Beasley

Is there any reason to question Beasley at this point? He is your WR18 since…well since week 1. Cole Beasley is, on average, better than Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Pittsburgh appears to be a tough matchup. However, Joe Haden may miss with a concussion, Bud Dupree is out for the season, and someone still needs to cover Stephon Diggs. If Allen is under duress, he will look for his trusty slot receiver for quick dump-offs. I anticipate a high floor for Beasley this week.

Jamison Crowder

Here is Jet #2. If Darnold is going to produce, who better to reap those rewards than his best receiver? Against one of the worst secondaries in football, Crowder should go off. Some people will shy from Crowder, but don’t. When he struggled in the middle of the season, it was because Flacco was behind center. Darnold targets Crowder at an insanely high rate.

Tyler Boyd

Boyd was ejected after what seemed to be an extremely ordinary scuffle on the sideline with Xavien Howard last week. Even still, Boyd put up 19 fantasy points. If you watched the Cowboys against the Ravens on Tuesday night, you saw how horrendous they are defensively. Boyd is the favorite target of Brandon Allen; take that with a grain of salt, but against Dallas I anticipate a strong performance from Boyd.

Sit:

Keke Coutee

Keke had a monster game last week. Although I love Watson this week, Coutee never has back-to-back strong performances. Last year, he followed his best game with just one reception for 7 yards. In 2018, he followed a 5 catch, 77 yard performance with 2 receptions for 14 yards. He is just too inconsistent for my taste. He will be a popular DFS play this week, but fade his performance. If he is on your roster, you only picked him up a week or two ago; it is easy enough to pivot away.

DeVante Parker

Parker is simply a different player with Tua behind center. DeVante is one of the best one-on-one receivers in the game; the problem is that Tua does not take risks like Ryan Fitzpatrick will. Against a great KC secondary, expect more of what you saw last week – just four receptions and 35 yards. Unless Fitz is announced the starter by Sunday, find an alternative.

DJ Chark

DJ was a pretty high pick this year, somewhere in the realm of the 4th or 5th round. That stock does not warrant the WR39 on the season. I think the bigger issue is that most sites still provide high projections for performance. Removing his two blowup games of 29 and 37 points this year, Chark averages under 8.5 PPR points per game. Are you kidding me? If his name was Keelan Cole or Laviska Shenault, he would have been released weeks ago.

Tight End:

Start:

Dallas Goedert

With a new QB under center, I think Goedert becomes the security blanket for Jalen Hurts. He only saw two targets from Hurts, but Dallas has seen at least six targets in four straight games this season. More than likely, you do not have a better alternative with this year’s tight end landscape. Play him, and don’t look back.

Eric Ebron

We will get to Ebron’s struggles in a second. But before that, if you knew you had a tight end who has put up double-digit fantasy points in every week except one since week 7, would you play him? Well you’re in luck! Ebron is seeing crazy high target volume in a pass-heavy offense. He is still struggling with communication on option routes, however. If you’ve watched the Steelers over the last two weeks, I’m sure you’ve noticed a theme; drops are seemingly contagious with the pass-catchers. Ebron is no stranger to drops. Since 2018, he has a nearly 9% drop rate. I think he comes through in a big way this week, and potentially shows out for your team to the tune of 20+ PPR fantasy points.

Jordan Reed

If there is one thing I love about fantasy football, it’s predicting the revenge game. Jordan Reed doesn’t seem to have any ill will against his former team, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him want to show Washington what they could still have. He is getting healthier at the right time, and Washington is simply average against TE’s. It may be hard to get things moving offensively for SF in this one, so Reed could be heavily involved.

Sit:

Dalton Schultz

It looks to be a juicy matchup on paper against the lowly Bengals. I’ve been watching film on Schultz, and I just don’t see too much in the way of a high ceiling. All of his targets are near the line of scrimmage as last resort check downs. He has only found the endzone one time since week 5; it could happen this week, but hopefully you have a better option with higher upside. The fantasy playoffs aren’t really a time to play it safe. You need boom potential against the best of the best.

Logan Thomas

I am acutely aware that Thomas just had the best game of his career. I am someone who picked up Thomas in almost every league early on this season, just to be let down again, and again, and again. He has come on as of late, but against the number one defense against tight ends, I see this more of a struggle and a low output type of day for Logan. You may not have better options, but I see no in between with him this week. The most likely outcome is less than 5 points, but there is a boom outcome as well. If I had to choose between Schultz and Thomas, give me Thomas this week.

Hayden Hurst

Hurst is dealing with a bit of an ankle issue. His production has been down, to follow suit. This is following the Jonnu Smith trend. Pivot if you can, I just don’t expect much. If word comes down that he is no longer hampered, I may feel differently but he is just a completely different tight end right now with minimal explosiveness.

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