How to Predict Fantasy Football Breakouts

If you're looking to win your draft and increase your odds of making the playoffs in your fantasy football league, here are some things to keep in mind when your team is on the clock.

First off, age is always important. Trying to predict a FINAL breakout for your 28 year-old running back you've had your eyes on since 2015? It probably won't happen. Apex Fantasy Leagues wrote an article comparing the average age for the PEAK age for a running back; this was essentially the year of a collective group of running back's best season. I was stunned to see that it was only 25.2 years of age. TWENTY FIVE! That is a third-or-fourth year back hitting their best season. If you are just jumping on board, trying to find value on a player when they are 25-28 at the RB position, it's already too late.

Well, what about wide receivers? Surely understanding route concepts and developing an NFL-caliber route tree takes time right? Pro Football Reference put together an article referencing the peak age for the other positions.

• Wide Receivers peak between 26-27, right around their 5th season.

• Tight ends peak at 25, essentially year 4.

• Quarterbacks are late bloomers, peaking around age 28 or 29.

So how can we then accurately predict breakouts? We want to be at least one year ahead of the curve. Let's target 5 players excluding QB that are poised for a massive 2021.

Running Back Breakouts

• Damien Harris, New England Patriots - This is more valuable of a pick in standard and half-PPR leagues, but with Cam Newton out of New England and Mac Jones taking the reigns, the ceiling for Damien Harris just skyrocketed. This offense isn't as good as the 2016 Patriots, but let's do a quick comparison.

• In 2016, the Patriots were 3rd in the NFL in rushing attempts, and 23rd in passing attempts. This should be very similar in 2021, and I think the Patriots have an even better offensive line than the team that won the Super Bowl in '16.

• LeGarrette Blount led the Pats this year with 299 carries. This was all in his age 30 season. Damien Harris is a full 6 years younger than Blount at this stage in his career, and much more explosive. In fact, Harris was the Patriots' highest-graded player according to Pro Football Focus and top-5 in the NFL for running backs.

• Blount was the red zone and goal line STUD in 2016. He plunged in for 18 touchdowns, by far a career high. That is a high number for Harris, but I can see double-digits and a much higher YPC than Blount's mediocre 3.9 that season.

• The perception that the Patriots use a running back by committee approach is true, to an extent. Since 2015, the leading rusher has carried the ball an average of 206 times per season for the Patriots, in just 13.7 games, on average. If Harris just averages what the Patriots have averaged since 2015 for their lead back, Harris would be looking at 253 carries over 17 games this year. Keep in mind, the lead back last year was Harris tied with Cam, who both carried 137 times. A massive bulk of those carries will go Harris' way. I actually project him to have right around 290 carries, 1,350, and 11 touchdowns. That would slot Harris in as RB7 in 2020 in standard scoring, and RB11 in PPR. Not bad for a guy going in the fifth round right now.

• Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

• Gaskin has moved around on draft boards more than a player I can remember in recent history without an injury. Yes, Miami has a bit of an ambiguous backfield, but Gaskin is clearly the most talented. He is also a PPR monster which seems to be a forgotten ability of his. He only played in 10 games last season. He is healthy, and projecting out his stats just from last season over a 17 game average, he would be looking at:

• 241 carries, 993 yards, 5 rushing touchdowns

• 70 receptions, 660 yards, 4 touchdowns - good to have been RB4 in PPR last year.

• No, just averaging out someone's previous year into the next season is not a great way to evaluate talent. But I think Gaskin is BETTER than he was last season. Neither Malcolm Brown nor Salvon Ahmed are receiving backs. Regardless, Gaskin will be on the field for third downs, racking up 80+ receptions this season with an improved Tua behind center. Expect Gaskin's breakout this year, and he can very easily be a league winner for you.

Wide Receiver Breakouts

There are plenty of sophomore targets I love this year. To name a few, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, what a loaded class. Let's take a look at two guys in particular going in round 6 and round 8:

• Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

• In just 12 games last season, Brandon Aiyuk finished as the WR33. In his sophomore campaign, barring injury it seems almost impossible to finish lower than his current ADP of WR26. He's been impressing in camp so far, and the QB situation is going to result in negligible changes in his performance in year two. Yes, Deebo only played in seven games last season, but the two players are completely different receivers. Samuel had a NEGATIVE ADOT in 2020. Aiyuk's ADOT was a solid 9.4. Deebo is the gadget, slot-type receiver while Aiyuk will be the bonafide X. I'm projecting a 1,000 yard season from Aiyuk with near double-digit touchdowns both rushing and receiving. If he can get 75 receptions with 1k and 10, you'll be looking at a player who locks in just about 200 fantasy points, placing him at the equivalent of WR14 in 2020 numbers. You'll see the huge sophomore leap from this player, with a team rearing to go with nearly their entire team returning from injury to compete for the NFC West crown.

• Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars

• The Jaguars just lost their hybrid running back/slot receiver (yes, Etienne would have been moved all over the field) to a Lisfranc injury. James Robinson is great, but he is not a receiving back. Laviska will be moved all over the place and Urban Mayer will manufacture several touches per game for this electric wideout. In the preseason, you can already see the way he'll be used. He will be the close to the line slot receiver, while Jones and Chark play the deeper portions of the field. 110+ targets are on deck for Viska with Trevor Lawrence now throwing him the ball.

Tight End Breakout

1. Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

• There are a good number of mouths to feed in Denver, and I like Jerry Jeudy as a breakout as well. However, you cannot ignore the third-year breakout of Noah Fant. He is going as TE8 right now, but he can and will finish in the top 5. He is yet to turn 24, and he is a 97th percentile athlete for the position. He is a blazing fast 4.5 40-yard guy, and has insane athleticism scores on PlayerProfiler. I think a lot of players were burned by him last year. Remember, he had a high ankle sprain that only held him out of one game. Normally, you'd want to see a minimum of 4 weeks to recover from a high ankle, plus a few more games to get your feet under you. Jonnu dealt with the same issue last season; explosiveness, burst off the line, cutting are all impacted. I expect to see the dominant version of Fant we've all been expecting this year. If you miss out on the big 3 at the beginning, I love Fant in the 9th round right now.