Week 12 Analytics Corner

In this new weekly edition of player reviews, we take a look at 3 players (or combination of players on the same team) from an advanced stats perspective. This is completely separate from the eyeball test; this will solely look at a player's numbers in comparison to other players in that same area. The goal here is to determine who is still a value as you head into your stretch run of must-win games or seed positioning for your playoffs. It can also demonstrate players that may be playing above their numbers, which means either a) the player is a much more efficient skill player than other players with similar metrics or b) the player will be reverting back to the mean. Hopefully we can provide you with context in all 3 scenarios.

Player 1: WR Emmanuel Sanders (and QB Josh Allen), Bills

As it currently stands, Sanders is the second-highest active receiver in the NFL this season for ADOT (average depth of target) at 16.6 (minimum of 30 targets). Although he is the elder statesman in this category, it still makes him a big play threat in the Buffalo offense. It hasn't consistently translated, however. The supporting cast efficiency rating for Josh Allen's receivers as a whole ranks 24th in the NFL. Even with that, Allen is currently ranked 5th in fantasy points per dropback but 11th in accuracy rating. The reason for Allen's loftier fantasy statistics is that the Bills rank #1 in gamescript for quarterback production and are top-5 in pass plays run per game. What does this all result in? Well, Josh Allen is putting up great numbers, but many of his efficiency metrics in the passing game are in the bottom 3rd in the league. Catchable pass rate and true completion percentage are all much lower than one would expect, especially when Allen was in the top-third in all of those metrics in 2020. There has been a regression in his production from last year to this year.

As for Sanders, almost all of his efficiency metrics rank near the bottom for receivers. Production premium, yards per route run, points per route run, contested catch rate, and true catch rate are all ranked below 60th at the position. In my opinion, the numbers say that Sanders is being utilized completely differently than what made him successful in years past. His ADOT was almost never in the top 40 at the position. He is now being used to stretch the field, and unless that changes in his age 34 season, I cannot trust Sanders in my fantasy lineup.

Player 2: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tua is likely available on your waivers. If he is (and you don't have a top-8 QB) go pick him up now for your fantasy playoffs. He has a ridiculous strength-of-schedule during weeks 15-17, and has a decent likelihood of being a league winner. He's battled injury, and has been without some combination of his top receiving options all season. Parker looks to be coming back, hopefully Will Fuller decides to make a return, and Waddle is now performing highly. When looking at Tua's efficiency numbers even with this being taken into account, he is top-10 in the following categories: true completion percentage, red zone completion percentage (4th), deep ball completion percentage (2nd), pressured completion percentage, clean pocket completion percentage, team pass plays per game, and total QBR. Couple that with a full complement of weapons and a cake schedule in the playoffs, Tua should be on your rosters.

Player 3: WR AJ Brown, Titans

Brown has been a disappointment all season. The numbers tell the same story. Brown, compared to his first two seasons, is wildly underperforming in all of these categories: broken tackles, yards after the catch, drop percentage, and passer rating when targeted. He's been hobbled most of the season with both knees which obviously plays a factor. It also doesn't help that Julio Jones has been a ghost in Tennessee. Even further, his catchable target rate from Tannehill has been abysmal. He ranks 87th in that category, and 74th in target quality. I think the biggest reason is that he just simply isn't getting the target separation to allow for YAC and broken tackles once he gets a head of steam. I still love him for the future and in dynasty leagues, but I've officially tempered expectations for his production the remainder of this year. He is now also dealing with a chest and hand injury. He will be a low-end WR2 or flex option for almost all of his games moving forward.

Let me know in the comments here, or on socials on the next 3 players you'd like to see featured in the analytics corner!