Someone Else's Headache

Let's take a look at six players being drafted between rounds 3-8 (one from each round in a 12-team redraft) that will be completely off all my rosters going into 2021 fantasy draft season. I'll make the case here why you should be doing the same.

Round 3: Miles Sanders

Sanders is currently being drafted right around pick 35, and there's just too many variables against him to consider him with your second RB on your roster.

First, the good stats

1. Sanders has maintained a strong YPC throughout his short career. Last season in 12 games, he still managed to rush for 5.3 YPC and over 800 yards.

2. He was targeted over 50 times in the backfield

3. He can be a gamebreaker, with multiple long runs last season which made a few of his weeks

The not so good

1. He has only had 1 game with more than 20 carries since week 2 of last season. This number will likely repeat, especially with a QB in Jalen Hurts who takes off plenty

2. A rushing QB is a vulture for RB's. See: Kyler Murray, Cam Newton. The upside is severely limited for Miles Sanders, especially in the TD department.

3. Hurts struggles with short throws. Even before Hurts was inserted as the starter, Sanders was not efficient. He finished 2020 with just a 53.8% catch percentage. The QB rating throwing to Sanders was an abysmal 46.7.

4. He only broke 9 tackles in 12 games last season. His breakaway ability is heavily reliant on him avoiding contact.

5. He puts the ball on the ground. He lost 4 footballs last season in 12 games.

6. Over the last two seasons, he has been on the field just over half the time, at 53%. If you are looking for a bellcow, Sanders just hasn't been it.

7. Four of Sanders' 12 career touchdowns on the ground have been on runs of 30 yards or more. This is just not a sticky stat. It is impossible to predict breakaway runs, and this is an unusually high rate of scoring from that distance. Coupling that with a QB that will vulture some short-yardage work, I anticipate touchdown regression from 6 in 12 games to 5 in 15 games.

Sure, if Sanders slips to the fifth, I would gladly take him as an RB3. With the lack of stud production, let someone else take on this problem.

Round 4: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is going 38th overall, high in the fourth round. Similar to Sanders, I could see him on my roster in the fifth, but not at this draft capital. In the same range, you could be getting the caliber of Chris Carson, Robert Woods, and Julio Jones.

First, the good

1. Reliability. Even through injury, Jacobs was on the field last season, playing 15 of 16.

2. 12 touchdowns last season. There's a reason he finished well, and it was sheer volume that pushed his mediocre average statistics to the next level.

3. Solid receiving progression. He went from 27 targets to 45 in 2020.

The not so good

1. Enter Kenyan Drake. The former fantasy favorite will now be involved in the Vegas backfield, taking snaps away from Jacobs. While this may help with his efficiency, it will not help his volume

2. Regression from his rookie season. Jacobs went from:

• 4.8 YPC to 3.9

• 2.8 yards after contact to 2.0

• 9.3 attempts before a broken tackle to 13.7

1. Kenyan Drake has 39 career red zone touchdowns. Not only will Jacobs' share % decrease, he will likely lose a strong number of carries in the red zone to the more experience Drake.

2. Lastly, Jacobs simply isn't explosive. He rarely breaks long runs (the opposite of Miles Sanders), and if he is losing goal-line carries to Kenyan Drake, he will see a strong regression in the TD department.

Round 5: Kenny Golladay

I could have gone with another RB (Hunt or James Robinson), but I wanted to mix in a different skill position. You will likely see me with very few shares of any of these players. I dislike Daniel Jones as a quarterback, and he will not throw into tight windows like Matt Stafford would for Kenny G. I won't go into advanced statistics for this player, as I think he is incredibly skilled. However, he is not an elite route runner and relies on his athleticism to overtake the defender more often than not. Moreover, Golladay left practice today with a hamstring injury. I don't think it will hamper him come the regular season, but it further limits the time that he and Jones can work on their chemistry. Quite simply, grab a receiver in this range that has better QB play; Aiyuk, Higgins, Chase, or grab your QB in Herbert or Wilson.

Round 6: Kyle Pitts

This is certainly controversial. Pitts is the best tight end prospect since, well, ever. There are Vernon Davis comparisons. He is freakishly fast, has the largest wingspan ever recorded in a skill position, you name it. Similar to Golladay, no advanced numbers here. This is more or less looking at the history of the position. Jeff Kerr wrote an article back in May looking at the history of rookie tight ends since Mike Ditka. No rookie TE has ever had over 900 yards, excluding Ditka (1962). Let's use some hypotheticals for how absolutely GREAT Pitts would need to be in his rookie season. If he matched the career records for rookie tight ends, it would look like this:

1. 894 yards (Jeremy Shockey, 2002)

2. 81 receptions (Keith Jackson, 1981)

3. 10 touchdowns (Rob Gronkowski, 2011)

In other words, Pitts would need to essentially accomplish the triple crown of tight end records in his rookie season to end with 230 fantasy points in full-PPR. Is this feasible? Yes, but HIGHLY unlikely. He is currently being drafted as the TE4. If he accomplishes this ridiculous season, that would have put him as the TE4 in 2019 (not including last season, where Kittle was out most of the year). In Tony Gonzalez's first season with Matt Ryan, he finished with 83/867/6. While Pitts could be an all-time great, Gonzalez is arguably THE best tight end of all time (Gronkowski stan here). It's much more likely that he finishes with a line of something like 65/750/6, which is still an incredible year. This would result in 176 PPR points, good for TE8 in 2019 and TE7 in 2021. If you play in more than 5-6 leagues, get a share of Pitts like I will. I just will not target him until round 8 or so if he slips.

Round 7: DJ Chark

This is one of my least favorite rounds in redraft. Right now, I am out on basically half of this round. I am avoiding Goedert, Mostert, and Sutton (still noticeably hurt). Here's why I have Chark off my board altogether

First, the good stats

1. ADOT of 14.0 last season. Definite deep threat candidate with (hopefully) competent QB play from Trevor.

2. Sure hands. Just 2 drops last season

3. 93 targets last season. Still involved in the offense

Next, the bad

1. It was hard finding positive stats for Chark honestly. This is probably the first statistic.

2. Definite regression from a breakout campaign in 2019. However, even 2019 wasn't as impressive as you might think. He has a historically low catch %, and has had very few 100+ yard receiving games in his career. For a deep threat, you'd expect more monster games for someone in this range. With a 7th round pick, you're looking for someone with massive upside to help take your team to the next level. With Shenault being a better football player, the team drafting Etienne to be a security blanket for Lawrence, and the team bringing in Marvin Jones, I think that Urban Meyer is looking to find an identity. I don't think Chark fits in that identity.

3. Just a 57% completion rate on targets in 2020, coupled with 5 interceptions on throws intended for him.

4. 76.7 QB rating throwing in his direction. The league average is 93.6.

With the addition of Jones, the rise of Shenault, and the reshaping of the team, I am avoiding Chark.

Round 8: Logan Thomas

This is a round where you may be looking for a tight end. I'm telling you, Thomas is not the answer. He had a great second half of last season with Alex Smith throwing a meager 5.3 yards per attempt. Compare that to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has averaged over 8 yards per attempt in the last three seasons he's played. They play completely different games. Without going into advanced statistics, this is the mountain Thomas will need to climb.

• From Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, "Fitzpatrick...His best tight ends were Scott Chandler with Buffalo in 2012 (43 catches, 571 yards and six touchdowns on 74 targets), Delanie Walker with Tennessee in 2013 (60 catches, 571 yards and six touchdowns on 86 targets) and Mike Gesicki with Miami in 2019 (51 catches, 570 yards and five touchdowns on 89 targets)." A reasonable expectation for Thomas would be a slash line of 50/600/5. 140 PPR points for a TE would result in approximately TE17 numbers in comparison to 2020 standards.

To expect TE9 production is just a steep number to get to. I would much rather wait if you hadn't gotten a top-3 TE, and go and get someone like Tyler Higbee a round or two later, Jonnu Smith, Blake Jarwin, or Adam Trautman.

Let me know what you think about this list, you can let me know in the comments, on Twitter @fantasybreak, TikTok and Instagram @thefantasybreak. Give me a follow!