Eight Players to Target in the Mid-to-Late Rounds

Let's take a look at FantasyPros' half-PPR ADP to go through rounds 5-12 (for a 12-team league) and make the case to get as many of these players as you can in your fantasy drafts. As you snake through the mid rounds, average draft position becomes more about going after the players YOU believe will be of the most value to your team. Of course, the strategy of taking the best player available is a fair strategy to have, but I recommend having specific tiers organized with players you value in each respective tier. For example, if you have a tier of Chris Carson, Myles Gaskin, David Montgomery, and D'Andre Swift, you may want to take a player within that tier before quality of backs begin to drop off to players like Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert, and Melvin Gordon. In the next two weeks, I will be releasing my entire top 200 players with tiers for each position that you can print out and bring with you on draft night. Find your favorite analyst, or create your own tiers to have the most success with your draft.

With that being said, let's go through these rounds and take a look at the best value regardless of positional tier-ranking. The caveat here is that if a player you love falls from the earlier rounds, don't hesitate!

Round 5: Darrell Henderson

Is Henderson as talented as Cam Akers? Absolutely not. You saw the ascent of Akers as the season went on. However, we are now nearing the middle of August, and the Rams have not gone out and traded for or signed a running back to replace Akers. The door is still open here, but if this roster remains unchanged come draft day, Henderson is an absolute steal. I want to look at the Rams backfield as a whole last season before diving into Henderson's value individually. These statistics are inclusive only of the running backs, not WR, TE, or QB rush attempts:

• 384 rushing attempts, 1,668 yards, and 12 touchdowns

• 4.34 yards per carry

• 71 targets, 50 receptions, 444 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

The backs as a whole were not heavily targeted in the passing game. With the quality of receivers and tight ends, I don't expect that to change a ton, but the first and third running back options from 2020 are no longer playing for the Rams in 2021. There are plenty of vacated targets and rushing attempts that will head in Henderson's direction. Xavier Jones and Jake Funk will now be involved, but Henderson should see the lions' share of the work; I expect 60% of the previous statline to head in his direction. With this projection, I can see Henderson with a line similar to this in this upcoming fantasy season:

• 210 rushing attempts, 950 yards (4.5 YPC), 7 touchdowns. On the ground, that will result in 137 fantasy points

• 42 targets, 32 receptions, 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. Add another 54 points.

In the 5th round, barring injury I feel like my projections are a strong conservative estimate for Henderson. In 2020, 191 fantasy points would have put Henderson in as the RB12. Keep in mind I am not adding in the 17th game to my projections here. As a barometer, Najee Harris is the current RB12 in drafts, solidly in the second round. If Henderson is there in the fifth, don't even think about it.

Round 6: Brandon Aiyuk

In just 12 games last season, Brandon Aiyuk finished as the WR33. In his sophomore campaign, barring injury it seems almost impossible to finish lower than his current ADP of WR26. He's been impressing in camp so far, and the QB situation is going to result in negligible changes in his performance in year two. Yes, Deebo only played in seven games last season, but the two players are completely different receivers. Samuel had a NEGATIVE ADOT in 2020. Aiyuk's ADOT was a solid 9.4. Deebo is the gadget, slot-type receiver while Aiyuk will be the bonafide X. I'm projecting a 1,000 yard season from Aiyuk with near double-digit touchdowns both rushing and receiving. If he can get 75 receptions with 1k and 10, you'll be looking at a player who locks in just about 200 fantasy points, placing him at the equivalent of WR14 in 2020 numbers. You'll see the huge sophomore leap from this player, with a team rearing to go with nearly their entire team returning from injury to compete for the NFC West crown.

Round 7: Chase Claypool

I have slowly been coming around on Claypool. I am still concerned about Roethlisberger and the offensive line, but Mapletron is just so good. He is utilized everywhere on the field including the backfield. As the deep threat in Pitt, you saw his sheer athleticism on display this past Thursday at the Hall of Fame game in Canton. If Ben has the time to target Chase, he should have a season similar to the player above in Aiyuk. As an athlete I'd even consider Claypool superior in that department with his size and speed combo. He is 6'4'' and 240 pounds and can run a 4.4 40. Sometimes, sheer athleticism wins out and I would love Claypool on my team with my seventh pick.

Round 8: Jerry Jeudy

I wanted to avoid triple-dipping with receivers here, but it just shows you the insane depth being presented at the position. I recently did a mock draft and went RB/RB with Zeke/Mixon and fell in love with the back-end of my draft. I passed up on Kelce, Hill and Adams to grab Zeke and then did the same with round 2. Because of that, I was able to load up with six receivers and two of them happened to be Jeudy and Claypool. Second-year receivers can miss, but I love the prospect of the three guys listed in a row here. Jeudy may not have a stellar QB room to look at, but his route running is top-tier in this league.

It sounds like Sutton is slowly returning to form in Denver. If he isn't 100% by the time week one rolls around, Jeudy is the number 1 at Mile High. If Sutton does return to his 2019 form, then you have a two-headed monster you need to cover. This skill position grouping in Denver has very high upside with the two receivers, two backs, and Fant. You can't cover them all, and Jeudy might just be the hardest one to cover. His one knock? He had a ton of drops last season, a nearly 9% drop rate. Hopefully his hands improve, and he could be yet another sophomore to eclipse the 1,000 yard receiving mark in 2021.

Round 9: Antonio Brown

This will be short and sweet. If Brown plays all 17 games this season, it is going to be impossible for him to be anything short of a WR3 for you. He is currently going as WR41. What's the upside? WR1 potential. It isn't like we haven't seen it before. Brown is the most prolific receiver of the last 10 years and it isn't particularly close. If anything were to happen to Godwin or Evans, he suddenly becomes one of the most sought-after players this season. It's the ninth round, at this point you should have your starters locked in. Brown is someone that can be your league winner in round 9.

Round 10: Robert Tonyan

Right now, round 10 screams value. There are several players I would love to claim in this round. This includes Laviska Shenault, Gus Edwards, Tyler Higbee, and Curtis Samuel. But I can't pass on Tonyan here if I don't have a tight end as the TE13. Sure, most of his points came from touchdowns last year. In fact, his touchdown rate was unheard of; 21%, or 11 touchdowns on 52 receptions. Is that percentage sustainable? Absolutely not. But believe it or not, he's still only 27 and has played just 43 games in his career. Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis have been blockers for his performance. Now that he has the chance to be the full-time TE in Wisconsin, he's demonstrated an absurd 89% catch rate. No, don't expect that to continue either. But, how do you expect Tonyan to receive just 59 targets in 2021? Let's go through the quality of tight end Aaron Rodgers has been playing with:

• A shell of Jimmy Graham (TE8 before a debilitating thumb injury)

• Lance Kendricks

• Richard Rodgers (TE11)

• Andrew Quarless

• Jermichael Finley (TE12)

• Jared Cook (just 6 games, TE12 during that time)

He now has a competent 3-down tight end. Expect 80+ targets this year with Aaron's second-favorite red-zone target in the massive 6'5'' Tonyan who doesn't drop the ball, and secured a ridiculous 33 first-downs and 11 touchdowns, making up 44 of his 52 receptions. Essentially, when you see Tonyan getting the ball, it results in a big play. Rodgers values that more than anything. Get him if he's still there; it's literally stealing from your league mates.

Round 11: You can't go wrong

This is the round where you get what you need to round out your team. There is no consensus reach here. These are the names I am more than willing to take within this range, with a quick rationale as to my thinking:

• Nyheim Hines. If Kareem Hunt is the Robin to Nick Chubb's batman, that is the case with Hines to Jonathan Taylor. He is a receiving back, but more than just that; as the backup last season, Hines managed to total 862 all-purpose yards and 7 total touchdowns. Screams value.

• Mike Williams: See; every other fantasy analyst. Williams has two seasons where he either had over 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns. As the number 2 in LA with a more than competent Justin Herbert, there's no reason why he can't mesh the two this year. Injuries have been his detriment, but believe it or not, he's just 26 and going into his 5th NFL season.

• Corey Davis: coming off a season as the number 2 option on a team that was run-heavy, he pulled off the best season of his career; 65/984/5. He is now the number one coming into NY, albeit with a rookie QB. There are options in NY, with Jamison Crowder, Michael Carter, Keelan Cole, and Elijah Moore. With it hard to double anyone in particular, this team will likely trail in most of their games resulting in the need to air it out. It may not be pretty, but Davis should see a stupid amount of targets this season.

Round 12: Darnell Mooney

Mooney is the number 2 behind Allen Robinson, looking at the two most competent quarterbacks the Bears have seen since Jay Cutler. You've seen the highlight; Mooney running completely naked in the secondary only to have Trubisky airmail it 3 yards over Mooney's head. Yet another second-year breakout here, I expect 120 targets coming Darnell's way in 2021. With a slightly improved completion percentage his way with the same YPC, Mooney should see 80 receptions, 830 yards, and 6 touchdowns. With Anthony Miller shipped to the Texans, Chicago expects this and more coming into 2021.

What do you think of this list of value plays going into draft season? Let me know here, comment below, or follow me on:

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