AFC South Fantasy Projections - Indianapolis Colts

Current Vegas win total over/under - 10 wins

The Colts are one of the more difficult teams to project in 2021. Any time a team switches quarterbacks in the offseason, there are question marks to how things might shake out; both from a wins and losses perspective and from a fantasy outlook. I will lay out my plan to your fantasy success when navigating the murky waters up in Indy.

Offensive Line

The argument in the NFL right now between the best offensive lines is an argument between just a few teams. One can argue for either the Browns or the Colts. One thing is for sure, Quenton Nelson is a MAN. Although he plays guard, he very well could be the best offensive lineman in the NFL. There are questions surrounding left tackle, as the Colts replaced their retired perennial LT in Anthony Castonzo with Eric Fisher, coming off of an Achilles injury. If a weakness can be pointed out, it is here even though Fisher is considered an above average tackle. Expect Wentz to have time in the pocket, and Jonathan Taylor to expand on his rookie campaign.

Carson Wentz, Current QB19, being taken 131st overall

What a difference a year makes. Last year, you probably forget that Wentz was a popular QB1 pick, and was the preseason number 8 QB off the board. Things look a lot different for Wentz since his monster 2017 where he ended as QB2. However, I think this is the best team he's played for since that Super Bowl run where Nick Foles took over and ripped the hearts out of me and all Patriots fans. I think this could be a big rebound for Wentz. He doesn't have the greatest WR room, but when you can set up a tent in the backfield with your reads, I don't see any reason why he can't outperform his current ADP. Last year, Rivers finished as QB20; at this point in his career, Wentz should be at least 30% better. If this is the case, Wentz would finish at last year's QB11. I love taking Wentz as a late-round flier as my backup quarterback this year.

Jonathan Taylor, Current RB8, being taken 6th overall

Nyheim Hines, Current RB39, being taken 114th overall

Taylor's ADP and ranking are inherently contradictory. However, he's creeping up boards with good reason. I had a lot riding on Taylor last year when I traded for him mid-season. He exploded in the second-half, finishing his final 4 games averaging 140 yards per game and 7 touchdowns. Those would more than warrant top-5 RB upside. However, those last 4 games were against some of the most porous defenses in the NFL. I still view Hines as a receiving back and one that limits the upside of Taylor in the air. Taylor did finish with 39 receptions last season. However, Hines finished with 63. Indy can be saying they view Taylor as their workhorse; they also know that their prospects reside in January in the playoffs. I think we are closer to a 60/40 split than an 80/20 split in this backfield. While I love Taylor, I prefer him closer to the back-end of round one, after Chubb, Elliott, and Ekeler. On the flipside, in a PPR league, don't be shy taking Hines as a strong flex candidate who could end up catching 70 passes this season.

Michael Pittman, Jr., Current WR47, being taken 108 overall

T.Y. Hilton, Current WR53, being taken 131 overall

Parris Campbell, Current WR66, being taken 210 overall

Zachary Pascal, Current WR99, undrafted

This is a puzzling WR room to say the least. I really do my best to avoid T.Y. Hilton at all costs unless the Texans are in town. He is on my do-not-draft list. I would prefer to take shots on younger players with higher upside than a 31 year-old receiver who looked like the tires lost all of their tread for a good chunk of last season. On the flipside, you have the second-year receiver in Pittman, who many pegged as a potential sleeper in last year's drafts. After his monster games in weeks 6 and 7 last year, Pittman was one of the most heavily added waiver players. Unfortunately, he ended the season from week 8 on never having another game with more than 5 catches or 46 yards. Parris Campbell is another young player coming into his third season trying to rebound from a season-ending injury in week 2. Projecting his performance in season 3 with a new quarterback is a challenge; however, he is a promising sleeper pick on an offense that needs someone to catch the ball. Lastly, Pascal is going undrafted. I suggest you do the same, and just monitor his performance from waivers and add if necessary. If I were to rank this room without ADP, I'd still say T.Y. leads in targets, but for now I take more of a hands-off approach in drafting anyone here. My sleeper pick would be Campbell if you want to take a shot on a young receiver who might be able to make the jump with a new QB behind center. He is a burner and ran a 4.31 at the combine. He is athletically gifted, and has just had the short end of the stick when it comes to injuries early on in his career.

Mo Alie-Cox, currently going undrafted

Jack Doyle, currently going undrafted

I LOVE MO! If you want to take a shot at a player who could make a difference for your fantasy team with little-to-no risk whatsoever, it could very well be big Mo. He was signed by the Colts in 2017 with zero football experience since he was in middle school. He has still been learning the game, and you could see his freakish athleticism on display last season. Remember Zach Ertz? I'm sure Carson Wentz does too; he loves throwing to tight ends, and the 6'6'' frame of Alie-Cox just might be the beneficiary here. If you do not get one of the big 3 tight ends early in the draft, wait and take a top 12 guy later on, and throw Mo on your bench and see if he may just be a league winner for you.

Indianapolis D/ST

If I haven't mentioned it yet, I prefer a world where kickers and defenses only matter in real life. I much prefer a fantasy league that emphasizes offensive output. However, most leagues still honor defenses, and some heavily reward strong defensive play (I have a league that gives +6 per interception, +4 to every fumble, and 1 point for every 10 special teams return yards). Indy has a strong, top-10 type defense that has excellent linebacker play and players that can get after the QB. Wait until the last round to take your defense. If the elites are gone, I have no issue rostering Indy.