AFC North Fantasy Predictions - Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Vegas win total over/under - 9 wins.

The Steelers ran out the gate last year as the final unbeaten to lose. This was with Roethlisberger coming back from season-ending shoulder surgery back at the beginning of the season in 2019. Reports out of Pittsburgh camp are promising, and it sounds like Big Ben has a renewed focus to make a final Lombardi push. How will that translate to fantasy football this year?

Offensive line

This iteration of the Pittsburgh Steelers features an offensive line that has more questions than answers for the first time in a long time. Continuity does not exist here, as the Steel Curtain will be rolling out FOUR new offensive line starters in 2021. They have moved on from David DeCastro and Alejandro Villanueva, and their perennial pro-bowl center Maurkice Pouncey has retired. Chips are moving around up front, and one of the lowest graded Tackles according to PFF, Chukwuma Okorafor, is moving from right tackle to left tackle. Expectations are high for this receiving corps and for rookie running back Najee Harris. Let's see how this abysmal front five plays into the rest of this team's prospects.

Ben Roethlisberger, Current QB20, being taken 139th overall

Ben ended 2020 as the QB17, with 33 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He is still a solid pocket passer, but there is just limited upside with Roethlisberger heading into his year 39 campaign. There is no rushing upside to him at this point, and the likelihood of even a 1-yard QB sneak is out the door. The only points gained from Ben will be through the air this year. With his offensive line, he'll need to be getting the ball out quicker than he ever has. Looking at advanced stats from last year (even with this highly touted receiving corps), Roethlisberger had the lowest values of his career in the following categories: yards per attempt (6.3) and yards per completion (9.5), all while having the lowest sack rate by far in his storied career. Why would there be any reason to believe this can improve with this offensive line? In comparing adjusted passing in 2020 from Pro Football Reference (an index that compares Ben to the rest of the league by year), Big Ben had the best sack rate in the NFL while being below average in most passing categories and just about average in QB rating. Without a massive improvement in OL play, I don't see Ben getting better at this point in his career. As a QB being drafted as a backup, I would much prefer high-upside plays like Wentz, Cam Newton (if he remains the starter, but then again these are backups on the fringe of being on waivers anyway), Trey Lance, or either of the New Orleans starters, whoever it may be.

Najee Harris, Current RB15, being taken 17th overall

Benny Snell, Currently going undrafted

Every season, it seems like there are two or three rookies that take the fantasy community by storm. Last year, CEH was being drafted in the middle of the first round. Cam Akers was a third-round back. Jonathan Taylor was viewed as a potential star if something were to happen to Marlon Mack (breaking news: something happened to Marlon Mack). This year, the belle of the ball award goes to Najee Harris. The Steelers have moved on from James Conner and have kept Benny Snell in the backfield. Believe it or not, Snell did manage to vulture 4 touchdowns last season on 111 attempts backing up James Conner (some of those carries were early on in the season, when Conner was seemingly benched). This was more of a timeshare than people realize, with Conner carrying the ball just 169 times. If the Steelers look for more of a balanced attack this season, then Harris could be rewarded with 200+ carries. The Steelers dropped back and threw just about as much as anyone in the NFL. Roethlisberger had the third-most passing attempts in the NFL while only playing 15 games last season. This will undoubtedly need to change if the Steelers look to win more games in the postseason (if they can make it there). However, where I think Harris can be most valuable is in the passing game. With Alabama last season, Harris caught 43 passes with nearly 1900 scrimmage yards and 30 total touchdowns. When the Steelers backfield was most successful in the last decade (with Le'Veon Bell), they threw to the running back at a much higher clip than they have in the last two seasons. In Bell's three healthy seasons with the Steelers, he averaged over 100 targets per season. Do I want to compare Bell to Harris at this stage of Najee's career? Well, no, but with Ben more likely than not needing to get the ball out quickly, expect the safety valve of Najee to gobble up at minimum 75 targets this season. This is why I view Najee as a much safer floor in PPR than in standard scoring leagues. I would almost prefer to avoid him in standard leagues because his draft capital is too high. In PPR and 1/2 PPR scoring, I am not hesitant to take him at his current ADP, even with the offensive line troubles in Pitt. As for Snell, leave him on waivers; if something were to happen to Najee, I would go after Snell with caution, as his receiving upside is more limited.

Diontae Johnson, Current WR20, being taken 53rd overall

Juju Smith-Shuster, Current WR27, being taken 73rd overall

Chase Claypool, Current WR31, being taken 67th overall

This is another room that is just difficult to predict. Diontae dominated the target share last season, but was much less efficient with his targets than Juju; JSS ended with 9 more receptions on 16 less targets than Johnson last season. Claypool lagged behind in targets, but was more of the big play receiver in this offense, with an average yards per catch of 14.1, far greater than the other two receivers. With that being said, he and Juju both finished with 9 touchdowns, while Johnson snagged 7; there isn't a huge discrepancy of targets for any of these three players in the red zone. Here is my strategy this season with drafting any of these three players; at their current draft slots, I view Juju as the strongest value. He and Johnson are nearly indiscernible when it comes to statistics. I see Juju's greater efficiency, his lower ADOT (Average Depth of Target), and his similar scoring output as more valuable on my PPR roster. Because the Steelers will need to get the ball out quicker and more efficiently, I view Juju going out 20 spots later as a much stronger value in drafts. Where Johnson is currently bring drafted, I would much prefer receivers like Cooper Kupp (are you even kidding me this isn't close!!!), Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods, or even DJ Moore. I am lowest on Claypool, simply because his ADOT was a staggering 13.2 yards. I don't rule out a jump in production from Claypool from year 1 to year 2, but unless he gets more of the lion's share of targets in the red zone, I just prefer taking receivers like Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton, or Smith-Shuster in the same range. In non-PPR, I would prefer to take Claypool's big-play ability over Juju.

Eric Ebron, current TE25, going undrafted in most leagues

This is somewhat of a surprise to see Ebron going undrafted this year, considering he did have 91 targets last season. Believe it or not, he is still just 28 years old. His 91 targets put him 8th amongst all tight ends last season. Where the discrepancy comes is in yards, where Ebron ranked 15th among tight ends. He simply doesn't get the downfield targets, and was inefficient with his target usage last season. However, he did still finish at TE13. I don't see a massive step-back here. I anticipate similar production from Ebron with Roethlisberger and company, and slightly better efficiency with his targets. While Najee will take some short-field targets away from Ebron, I expect a 50-catch campaign with 5 touchdowns. If his yards per reception end at the average of Ebron's career, that would result in 550 yards. That would rank Ebron as last year's TE12. Take this with a grain of salt, his inconsistency is not worthy of a pick yet. If you see your league going on a run of tight ends late in the draft, it might be worth a flier to have Ebron as your backup.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST, current D/ST 2

My philosophy is to always take a D/ST with one of your last picks. Kickers and defenses really have too much variability in production game-to-game, unless you have something like the 1985 Bears reincarnated. If you can have the Steelers fall to you in the 3rd or 4th to last round of your draft, it may not hurt to take them a bit early, as they can get AFTER the QB. I still like the Rams better than the Steelers, but I can agree with the ECR ranking of number 2 for this team. As an idea of why I have little value here, the difference between D/ST1 and D/ST 12 last season was a mere 2.8 points per game. Compare that to QB1 vs QB12, that difference was 7.1 PPG, and RB1 to RB12 was 11.4 (!!!) points per game. Use your late picks on sleeper flyers who could win you a league. Don't waste high-round picks here.

To recap:

Players to avoid at their current ADP: Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool

Players just right at their ADP: Juju Smith-Shuster, Najee Harris

Player you can take above their ADP: Eric Ebron

What are your thoughts on the Pittsburgh Steelers heading into 2021? You can let me know here, at my twitter handle, @fantasybreak, and on my TikTok @TheFantasyBreak!