AFC North Fantasy Breakdown - Cincinnati Bengals

With this series of blogs, we will be breaking down each team's fantasy relevant prospects. I will be viewing each player by Average Draft Position (ADP) for full point PPR scoring. My basis of comparison will be from Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR, to compare how I view where each player is being drafted. I do utilize Pro Football Focus for a lot of these stats, and give credit to FantasyPros for their rankings! I will be going by position groups; more breakdown will be coming when we get to my draft rankings coming at the beginning of August.

Cincinnati Bengals - Current Vegas o/u for win total: 6.5

Offensive line - The Bengals had a notoriously poor offensive line last year, which led Joe Burrow to run for his life game after game. After his season-ending injury, it became increasingly evident that the Bengals needed to re-tool their offensive line heading into the 2021 season to protect their generational QB. It came as a bit of a shock to me to see them then select Ja'Marr Chase with the 5th overall pick in this season's draft over the consensus best offensive lineman in Penei Sewell. However, Cincy did go out and sign veteran Riley Reiff to shore up the right tackle position, and select three other offensive lineman in this year's draft. Sure, there is momentum in the right direction, but they will be relying on several below average players on the line and the hope that their second-year quarterback will have a bit more time in the pocket this year. I still view this unit as a bottom-tier group who slightly drag this team's overall run-and-gun style down.

Current ECR

Joe Burrow, QB13, currently being taken 83rd overall

I love Joe Burrow's talent, and in his first ten professional football games, he impressed; 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions for almost 2700 yards. He was throwing over 40 passes per game, but took 32 sacks in those just 9.5 games before having total knee reconstruction. He is surrounded with talent; his partner at LSU Ja'Marr Chase joins him this year, along with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and some underwhelming tight ends in Sample and Uzomah. However, I am having a tough time rostering Burrow and investing a 7th round pick to take him. His injury was one of the worst knee injuries you can have, and his surgery wasn't until December. He will be taking the field behind a mediocre line just 10 months after this operation. His mobility, which is usually a strength, I don't think will be there the first half of the season. If he falls, and you have another QB you can start the first half of the season, he's worth a roster spot. I think you see Burrow a bit tentative out the gate, and once he gets his feet under him come November, you'll see him come to form especially if Chase is as advertised. I just have my doubts.

Joe Mixon, RB11, currently being taken 11th overall

Mixon is projected to have a massive workload in 2021 after an injury-riddled 2020 campaign. With Gio Bernard off to TB, little stands in the way of what we all thought Mixon would be last year. We should see a career high in attempts and receptions. I think there is a real possibility that Mixon gets 50+ receptions this year and be a top-5 back if things fall his way. With a slight improvement on the offensive line and plenty of receivers to cover, it should be tougher for opponents to pack the box against the run. My strategy in most drafts this year is to go RB/RB with my first two picks and rely on the WR depth later in the middle rounds. If you are in the middle of the first, I have no issues with taking someone like Henry or Saquon and doubling back to Mixon. I love him this year.

Tee Higgins, WR25, currently being taken 71st overall

Ja'Marr Chase, WR33, currently being taken 64th overall

Tyler Boyd, WR34, currently being taken 88th overall

When I am conducting my mock drafts, I have been finding myself with Tee Higgins plenty. Take a quick look at ECR vs. ADP for him and Chase. Higgins is falling below his ECR, while Chase is being taken earlier and earlier in mocks. As a reminder, Chase took the entire 2020 season off at LSU and trained to get ready for the draft. If he and Burrow and revive their connection to even half of what they were able to do in 2019 by scoring 20 touchdowns together, he will by far be the rookie WR1. For my money, I will be trusting in the pro Higgins who averaged over 7 targets per game before the Burrow injury. Boyd is also a solid flex WR who, just two years ago, had his second consecutive 1,000 yard season. This is a loaded WR room, and if you can get each player at the right price, could help you win lots of games this year. If the ADP's hold, I prefer Higgins, Chase, and Boyd in that order. In Chase's current tier, I prefer to select Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton. I would take Chase over Will Fuller, Deebo, Cooks, Claypool, Chark.

Drew Sample, TE45

CJ Uzomah, TE46

There is no threat of either of these two being selected consistently in drafts. Just keep your eye on them throughout the season and see if their performance warrants an add. It shouldn't take too much of your FAAB budget to acquire, and they aren't on my radar for 2021.

Bengals D/ST

This unit is challenging for the worst defense in the NFL. This will greatly help the fantasy prospects on the other side of the ball, but let this team stay on the waiver wire this year.

Tomorrow, we will be running through the Indianapolis Colts and their dominant offensive line. If you liked the content of this blog, let me know on Twitter @FantasyBreak, or on TikTok @TheFantasyBreak!