2021 AFC North Breakdown - Cleveland Browns

Current Vegas win over/under - 10 wins

From a talent perspective, this roster has the makings of a great team, both in true football sense and in fantasy. Not every position will have as much talent, but there are absolutely some high-end players you should be considering.

Offensive line

This Browns offensive line is the gold standard for the NFL. Last year, they were Pro Football Focus' number 1 offensive line. The better news? They return all five starters. This doesn't guarantee the same production, but even if they remain a top-8 offensive line, that can only mean great things for their weapons.

Baker Mayfield - Current QB16, going 130th overall

Baker is someone who I am not in love with having as my backup. For the Browns' success, he is a great game manager who doesn't turn the ball over. I don't mind it if I can grab him around the 13th round. There are still other players going after Baker who may have more upside with their legs, but if we start seeing players like Trey Lance and Justin Fields creeping up in ADP, Baker is serviceable. I do think we can start looking at Baker's 2019 as the anomaly, and not the norm. It feels like he has been in the league for a while, but it is only his 4th season. His interception rate was near-elite at just 1.6% last season. He is simply making less mistakes. However, there is a bust possibility from game-to-game. Last season, even though weather was a factor in most of these games, Baker did have 6 games with less than 10 fantasy points. If you stream Baker, you NEED to keep an eye on elements before plugging and playing; Cleveland is not friendly to QB's. Part of this is also due to their backfield. In my opinion, Chubb/Hunt are the best 1/2 punch in the NFL. With that offensive line, that defense, and those backs, I would want to run as much as I could also. While there is a bit of Jekyll and Hyde in his game, the return of OBJ is a good thing. People will make the argument that the Browns are more well-rounded without him. I say, if you have a receiver that at the height of his powers, was one of the best in the league, that is only a positive for your outlook. I expect the Browns to throw more to help keep Chubb fresh for a playoff push. I have Baker ahead of quarterbacks like Tua, Carr, Daniel Jones, Big Ben, and Matt Ryan. I just prefer players who can do more with their legs, if I am going to be rostering more than one quarterback.

Nick Chubb, Current RB10, being taken 9th overall

Kareem Hunt, Current RB25, being taken 50th overall

I want to go over these backs completely separately. Chubb is still only 25 years old. I watched plenty of All-22 tape on him, and I think he has the single best back vision in the NFL today. He sees holes developing before they are there, and will cut on a dime across the line of scrimmage to find the best angle for yardage. He's a fierce back and will run over your face. I absolutely LOVE Nick Chubb. One area that can improve is his catching. Not to say he isn't capable, but he doesn't receive enough targets. Last season he caught just 16 passes (on 18 targets). For Chubb to have top 5 upside this year, he needs to get more involved in the passing game, which I do expect to happen. I think Chubb will get closer to 35 targets this season and 25-30 receptions. That isn't game-changing by any stretch, but that adds essentially 1 point to his floor every game if he could just double his targets. That slight adjustment would be enough to move Chubb from RB8 in average points per game in 2020 to RB5. Is that feasible? In 2019, he received 49 targets. I think we still get the crazy efficiency on the ground, and you can bank on Nick Chubb as a bonafide stud in your lineup. I'll take him ahead of Saquon this year, and am targeting him around the 6th pick. I will need to take a real hard look between him and Jonathan Taylor for that spot, but as of this writing I am slightly favoring Chubb.

For Kareem Hunt, what else can you say? He is an elite handcuff if something were to happen to Nick Chubb, bench/flex value in PPR formats. His numbers are inflated from last year due to the absence of Nick Chubb for about 4 games, but we can look at his averages, and usage, from the past two seasons to really get an idea of what his value is. Believe it or not, he isn't the heavy pass-catching, 3rd down back we view him as. In the past two seasons, he's accumulated a total of 96 targets in 24 games, roughly 4 per game. I don't like to project injuries. If Chubb stays healthy, this is the script the Browns have followed with Kareem Hunt: 11 carries per game, 49 yards per game, 2 receptions, and 19 receiving yards per game. That math breaks down to 8.8 fantasy PPG. To me, at an ADP of 50th overall, you can go so many other avenues with your fourth round pick. I envision Hunt as someone who should be falling into the round 7 category. I target RB/RB in my drafts to start unless I can have one of the top 3 receivers fall to me in the middle of round 2, or Kelce slips to the end of round one. You should not be looking for depth at your fourth pick; you should instead be looking for high-end WR pairings like Thielen, Cupp, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett.

Odell Beckham, Jr. - Current WR29, being taken 75th overall

My good friends at The Fantasy Football Dudes requested a bit more in-depth analysis on OBJ. Over the next few days, I'll be putting together some All-22 footage on OBJ to be able to provide more visuals to back up my theory. Lots of people state that the Browns are more well-balanced, and essentially, a better team without Odell. Their record may very well back that up. However, if you have a potential top-5 talent at a position, you are simply not better when he is not on the field. He attracts special coverage, he requires a specific gameplan, and he simply opens up the field for the rest of the team. I have a feeling Baker may have been focusing on his number one target a bit too much last season, leaving his progressions aside and trusting the athletic ability of OBJ. I'll let the tape do the talking over the next few days. If Baker and the Browns can utilize Beckham properly, this could be a strong rebound season from him. However, keep in mind Beckham is attempting to return from an ACL injury back in October. Besides the two seasons cut short by injury, OBJ has always posted over 1,000 yards, 70+ receptions, and solid touchdown production. I think he can return to form in short order as he is still only 28. If you are able to get those statistics in a WR3, sign me up yesterday. I'll be keeping a close eye on Beckham in the preseason (if he even plays) to see how he looks, but I am going to be targeting Beckham as a low-end WR2 with potential top-15 upside.

Jarvis Landry, Current WR38, Being taken 94th overall

I have personally never had a share of Landry on any of my fantasy teams. Last season, Landry had a career low in receptions all while OBJ was not available. He has a floor in PPR, as he typically will average between 5-7 receptions per game. It does seem like the Browns are changing his play style. His ADOT per season has decreased every year he's been with the Browns, and is now at an 8.2 low. I don't mind his current ADP, and I view him in that WR3/4 range, but at that range of the 8th round, I am likely targeting more upside with players like Jerry Jeudy or Curtis Samuel.

Austin Hooper - Current TE22, being taken 188th overall

Hooper is going undrafted in a good number of mock drafts currently. I don't see much upside in taking him over players like Kmet, Jarwin, Trautman, or even Eric Ebron. I am avoiding, I suggest you do too.

Cleveland D/ST - Currently D/ST11

The Browns have a solid defensive unit here, and are a borderline starting 11. They did add Jadeveon Clowney, who has been nearly nonexistent the past two seasons. However, pairing him with Myles Garrett could unlock some of the magic that he and JJ Watt had in Houston. Would I be pumped with this squad to start 2021? Not exactly, but they are a solid streaming option when the matchup calls for it.

Let me know what your thoughts are on the Browns this season. You can let me know here, on my Twitter @fantasybreak, or on TikTok, @TheFantasyBreak.